[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 281758
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281758 
CAZ000-282000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0170
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL CA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281758Z - 282000Z

ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ACCOMPANIED WITH HAIL WILL BE LIKELY AS STORMS
TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A STRONG VORTICITY MAX JUST OFF
THE NRN CA COAST WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SAN
FRANCISCO AREA SHOWN BY THE RUC. FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH WARMING SFC TEMPS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
ARE CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION.
AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...NEW STORM
INITIATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IN
THE SAN FRANCISCO AREA WITH STORMS EXPANDING SWD ALONG THE THERMAL
AXIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 88D VWPS IN THE AREA SHOW STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE TO CONTINUE ISOLATED
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS...HAIL WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

..BROYLES.. 02/28/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...MTR...

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