[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Feb 25 17:47:48 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 251746
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251745 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-252345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0169
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY...NRN AND CENTRAL  VT/NH...SWRN ME

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 251745Z - 252345Z

HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM NRN NY INTO NRN/CENTRAL VT/NH AND
SWRN ME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES
AROUND 1 INCH WILL BE LIKELY. THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE IN A 30-40 MILE WIDE ZONE CENTERED FROM ART
TO 20 S OF MPV TO LCI TO PWM. HEAVY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE OUT
OF MOST THE AREA...EXCEPT SWRN ME...BY 00Z.

LATEST IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED VORT MAX OVER ERN LAKE
ONTARIO WITH A DRY SLOT EXTENDING SWWD INTO WRN NY/PA. MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED ALONG AND EAST OF
THE VORT LOBE TRACK AND NORTH OF THE DRY SLOT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THIS PLACES MOST OF NRN NY...NRN/CENTRAL VT/NH AND SWRN ME IN A
FAVORABLE ZONE FOR ENHANCED LOW-MID LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION. RECENT
SFC/RADAR OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THIS STRONG VERTICAL MOTION ALREADY
DEVELOPING OVER NWRN NY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO
NRN/CENTRAL VT/NH AND SWRN ME THROUGH 00Z. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
STRONG VERTICAL MOTION ALONG WITH A DEEP LAYER /8-10 KFT/ OF
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH AND LOW SNOW-WATER EQUIVALENT RATIOS /20:1/
DUE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS...WILL SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW WITH HRLY
RATES AROUND 1 INCH IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS.

..CROSBIE.. 02/25/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

44127012 44497103 44777433 44507563 44027604 43577574
43467395 43337260 43197140 43487029 