[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Feb 28 20:38:08 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 282037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282036 
UTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-282230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0171
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN UT...SE ID...FAR WRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 282036Z - 282230Z

STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS NRN UT...SE ID AND FAR WRN WY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
MAY TAKE PLACE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN UT INTO ERN NV. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW NEAR THE GREAT SALT LAKE WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW. A LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS
EXTENDS ACROSS WRN UT NWD INTO THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA WHERE SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S F. A LINE OF STORMS IS DEVELOPING ALONG
THIS CORRIDOR AND STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADS NNEWD ACROSS THE
REGION EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH
SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND 88D VWPS SHOW WINDS ARE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND FORCING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS THE DOMINANT MODE WILL BE QUASI-LINEAR. THIS
COMBINED WITH SFC TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEEDING 20 DEGREES
F SHOULD MAKE WIND DAMAGE THE MOST VIABLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 02/28/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...VEF...LKN...

42731153 42631094 42131043 41331035 40261117 39131255
38321405 38151516 38451592 39041588 39671505 40421361
41921226 42451187 