[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 251705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251704 
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-251830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0168
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA..MS...AL...AND THE FL PNHDL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 251704Z - 251830Z

THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS/HAIL WILL EXIST IN STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RISK
OF ACTIVITY EXCEEDING SEVERE CRITERIA SEEMS LOW OR LIKELY TO REMAIN
VERY ISOLATED. 

WEAK WAVE ALONG SURFACE FRONT IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
NEW ORLEANS/LAKE PONCHARTRAIN AREA.  FEATURE APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL STREAM...WHICH
WILL PROGRESS MORE RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF
COAST THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS
STILL UPSTREAM...ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ABOVE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WHICH TRAILS SURFACE
WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.  

NARROW EAST-WEST BAND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A FEW OF THE UPDRAFTS...BASED MOSTLY ABOVE
NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER...COULD BECOME FAIRLY VIGOROUS...WITH
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG...PERHAPS LOCALLY IN EXCESS
OF 1000 J/KG.  IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...HAIL COULD BRIEFLY
APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE CRITERIA IN STRONGEST STORMS.  INVERSION
LAYER MAY BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED
DOWNBURST...MAINLY NEAR/EAST OF SURFACE WAVE.

..KERR.. 02/25/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

29749320 30629233 30918986 31038877 31108757 31038644
30738524 30358473 29648463