[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 241853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241853 
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-242030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW/S CNTRL NM...EXTREME SE AZ

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 241853Z - 242030Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BY/SHORTLY AFTER
21Z.

INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO APPEARS
MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH ONSET OF MID-LEVEL COOLING ACCOMPANYING APPROACH OF
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  OROGRAPHY MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO
DEVELOPMENT...BUT ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY MOSTLY ROOTED ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...IN LAYER MOISTENING WITH BROADER SCALE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT.

HOWEVER...DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING
AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH CAPE APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 500 J/KG.  AS THIS
OCCURS...POSSIBLY BY AROUND 21Z NEAR AND WEST OF LAS CRUCES/EL
PASO...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS WILL INCREASE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE STORMS.  MODERATE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
ROTATION...WHICH MAY ENHANCE RISK FOR HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING SEVERE CRITERIA.

..KERR.. 02/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...

31360909 32140931 32940843 32820739 32400682 32090660
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