[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Feb 24 18:15:53 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 241812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241812 
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-250015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0164
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN...NRN WI...SRN/WRN U.P. OF MI/NRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 241812Z - 250015Z

HEAVY SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NRN MN/NWRN WI AND
PORTIONS OF WRN LOWER MI THROUGH 21Z. FURTHER EAST...A NARROW
...40-50 MILES WIDE...BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ESEWD INTO
NERN WI...SWRN/SCENTRAL U.P OF MI AND NRN LOWER MI BETWEEN 20-00Z.
THE AXIS OF THIS HEAVY SNOW BAND SHOULD FALL ROUGHLY FROM IMT TO 35
S OF PLN.  HRLY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 IN WILL BE LIKELY.

17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD FROM A
SURFACE LOW OVER NERN SD INTO SRN WI. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WAA NORTH
OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN SATURATION OF LOW-MID LEVELS
OVER SRN U.P OF MI/NRN LOWER MI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER
/COINCIDENT WITH DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH/ WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW ESEWD AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED UPPER VORT MAX INTO NERN WI...THE SRN
U.P OF MI/NRN LOWER MI BETWEEN 20-00Z. IN ADDITION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG VERTICAL MOTION...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7-7.5 DEG C/KM WILL DEVELOP EWD AND SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOWFALL RATES. DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
/BELOW 850 MB/ AS EVIDENT BY SURFACE OBS OVER NERN WI/SRN U.P OF MI
AND NRN LOWER MI...HEAVY SNOWFALL DEVELOPMENT IN THE MID-LEVELS JUST
ABOVE THIS LAYER /PER RECENT RADAR REFLECTIVELY/ SHOULD AID IN A
SATURATION AND SURFACE HVY SNOWFALL DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON.

..CROSBIE.. 02/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...DLH...

47009440 47429382 47309276 46839030 46128718 45548463
45068442 44558484 44528564 44598651 44878755 45128846
45508974 46179231 46489375 46729414 