[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Feb 25 00:40:26 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 250039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250038 
TXZ000-NMZ000-250245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR W TX/SRN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 250038Z - 250245Z

THREAT FOR HAIL/A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO LIMITED TEMPORAL AND
AREAL THREAT.

EVENING EPZ /EL PASO TX/ RAOB REVEALS STEEP LAPSE RATES...AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD FROM NWRN
MEXICO.  THIS PROFILE CONFIRMS MODEL/OA FIELDS...NOW SHOWING
MEAN-LAYER CAPE AOB 500 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION.  

THIS RAOB AND EL PASO TX WSR-88D VWP ALSO DEPICT 50 TO 60 KT WSWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW...CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS.  WITH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SOMEWHAT WEAK...MAIN THREAT
APPEARS TO BE HAIL -- PARTICULARLY AS COOLING ALOFT CONTINUES TO
SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.  THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION.

..GOSS.. 02/25/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

32140724 32810671 33150553 32840388 31570375 30710334
30190383 30180469 30620493 31360598 31390609 31730638
31760730 