[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Feb 24 12:03:41 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 241201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241200 
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-241800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0163
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0600 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN...NRN WI AND THE WRN UPPER MI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 241200Z - 241800Z

BANDS OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP W-E ACROSS NRN MN INTO NRN WI AND WRN
UPPER MI THROUGH 18Z.  HEAVIEST SNOW /HOURLY RATES 1-1.5 INCHES/
WILL FALL 40-50 MILES N-S OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM 30W KIMT-35SW
KDLH-KFAR.  

12Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER SWRN ND WITH A WARM FRONT SEWD
INTO ERN SD.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE SD/ND
BORDER THIS MORNING...THEN INTO SWRN MN BY 18Z.  LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE LOW...ACTING TO TIGHTEN THE
ALREADY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.  SHORT TERM MODELS ALL AGREE THAT
H85-H7 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BECOME QUITE INTENSE ACROSS NRN
MN...NRN WI AND WRN UPPER MI THROUGH 18Z.  

THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL LIKELY BE DEEPER ACROSS NRN PARTS OF
MN/WI PER RECENT SREF AND 06Z ETA.  THIS IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW.  RECENT RADAR
IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS THIS SCENARIO UPSTREAM ACROSS THE RED RVR VLY
WITH A 30-35 DBZ SNOWBAND VCNTY KFAR.

AFTER THE COLUMN BECOMES SUFFICIENTLY MOIST...THE HEAVIER BANDS OF
SNOW WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP MORE QUICKLY THAN THE 06Z ETA SOLUTIONS. 
THIS SUGGESTS PERHAPS AN EARLIER TIMING DOWNSTREAM.  CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR HEAVIER SNOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE NCNTRL-NERN MN
AREA BY 16Z...AND INTO NRN WI AND WRN UPPER MI NEAR/JUST AFTER 18Z. 
GIVEN 15-20:1 RATIOS...SNOWFALL RATES COULD EXCEED 1-1.5 INCHES PER
HOUR IN THE STRONGEST BANDS.

..RACY.. 02/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...

47139659 47599561 47589381 47319235 46989106 46668946
46348880 45748890 45468926 45368982 45399084 45629221
45859360 46079485 46319600 46679645 