[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Feb 6 20:54:26 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 062054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062053 
NYZ000-070130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0128
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CST MON FEB 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...LAKE EFFECT AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL NY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 062053Z - 070130Z

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...WITH A SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF ORGANIZED BAND ACROSS
LEWIS/SOUTHERN JEFFERSON/NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES...FURTHER
ENHANCING ONGOING HEAVY SNOW INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. SNOW RATES
OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. 

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE LEE OF LAKE
ONTARIO...HIGHLIGHTED BY MOIST UPSLOPE INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND
WELL ORGANIZED/LONG CONNECTED BAND ACROSS JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTIES NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. THIS SINGLE BAND IS
FURTHER ENHANCED BY LONG TRAJECTORIES OVER UPSTREAM LAKES /NAMELY
HURON/ PER SATELLITE IMAGERY/VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA. AS SUGGESTED BY
WRF-4KM/18Z RUC GUIDANCE...A SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF THE EXISTING
SINGLE BAND SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS TRAJECTORIES TREND
TOWARD THE NW. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/AMPLE LAKE INDUCED CAPE
IN PRESENCE OF 3 KM INVERSION HEIGHTS/MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE 2-3 IN/HR SNOW RATES.

..GUYER.. 02/06/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

43877636 44187514 44077440 43547456 43257625 

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