[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Feb 5 05:51:27 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 050551
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050550 
MIZ000-051015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0127
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 050550Z - 051015Z

MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST TO EAST
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 12 UTC. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN/HR ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE REGION...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TOWARD MORNING.

MID LEVEL OCCLUDED CYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER LAKE ERIE...WITH
ASSOCIATED 986 MB SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST TIP
OF LAKE ONTARIO AT 05 UTC. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAS INCREASED SINCE 04 UTC
OVER NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. ONGOING SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS LATEST
RUC AND 00 UTC NAM INDICATE STRONG UVVS /Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/ ALONG
NORTH/NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL OCCLUSION THROUGH 12 UTC.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WRAPPING AROUND CLOSED LOW ALONG WITH FAVORABLE
PROFILES OF TEMPERATURE AND ASCENT SUPPORT DENDRITIC GROWTH AND 1
IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES UNTIL 10 TO 12 UTC. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
BELOW FREEZING WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION AND BLOWING SNOW
EXPECTED.

..BRIGHT.. 02/05/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

45508504 45688470 45528400 45228339 44838332 44328333
44118356 43808386 43608373 44008312 43968288 43798265
43358249 43128259 42968267 42818287 42728326 42898393
43338413 43698439 44098454 44678519 45158529 

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