[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 101221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101221 
ARZ000-MOZ000-101715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0129
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0621 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN AR INTO EXTREME SRN MO

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 101221Z - 101715Z

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AR INTO EXTREME SRN
MO BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER
SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL OR NRN AR BY
AFTERNOON WITH RATES BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN MO SWWD THROUGH
NWRN AR...SRN OK AND NWRN TX. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SWD TODAY WITH 
CP AIR SPREADING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY IN ITS WAKE.
MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY BEING TRANSPORTED NEWD THROUGH TX AND INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY ALONG THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET DOWNSTREAM FROM A SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO. MEANWHILE A NRN STREAM
IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO
THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THIS FORCING WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING NWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF SNOW ACROSS CNTRL/NRN AR
INTO EXTREME SRN MO. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE SURFACE WET BULB
ZERO LINE FROM CNTRL AR NWWD INTO NERN OK. A WARM LAYER ABOVE THE
SURFACE SUGGESTS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS RAIN IN
AR...BUT THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE EFFECTS OF WET
BULB COOLING AND COLD ADVECTION LOWER THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE TO
BELOW FREEZING.

..DIAL.. 02/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

35339073 34749235 34919401 35859423 36529375 36859146
36429046 

WWWW