[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 050318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050318 
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-050445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0918 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA AND EXTREME WRN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 050318Z - 050445Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR SO
ACROSS SERN PA AND EXTREME WRN NJ INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA AREA. DUE
TO THE VERY LOCALIZED NATURE AND SHORT DURATION OF THE THREAT...A WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FORCED LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WITH LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG EWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE LINE IS MOVING ENEWD AT AROUND 35
KT. THE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS WITH
INTENSIFYING 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH NWD EJECTING
IMPULSE. POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM TO
BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE. INFLOW FROM WARM SECTOR ACROSS SRN NJ
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN THE STORMS ANOTHER
HOUR OR SO...BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER N OF THE WARM FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SERN
PA THROUGH CNTRL NJ.

..DIAL.. 02/05/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...

39567564 40257614 40627529 40347467 39717503 

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