[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Feb 4 14:45:11 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 041445
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041444 
FLZ000-041645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0120
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0844 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...S FL AND KEYS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041444Z - 041645Z

LINE OF TSTMS IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS S FL AND KEYS THROUGH
FORENOON HOURS.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUSTS THAT -- WHILE LARGELY
BELOW 50 KT SEVERE CRITERIA -- STILL MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL WIND DAMAGE.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM GIVEN MRGL SVR
POTENTIAL AND LIMITED AREA AFFECTED.

INFLOW LAYER IS FCST TO BE FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AS MAIN CONVECTIVE
BAND REACHES ATLANTIC COASTAL COUNTIES...EVERGLADES AND KEYS. 
HIGHEST AMBIENT THETAE IS EVIDENT ATTM OVER KEYS...WHERE MARINE AIR
MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS LOW 70S F AND TEMPS EXPECTED
TO APCH 80 WITH SOME DIURNAL HEATING.  ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED EYW RAOB
AND RUC SOUNDINGS YIELD MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG.  BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
MASS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS PALM BEACH/BROWARD/SERN COLLIER AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES IS FCST TO DESTABILIZE ADDITIONALLY FROM SFC
DIABATIC HEATING.  KINEMATIC PROFILES SUPPORT CONTINUED LINEAR
ORGANIZATION WITH EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW FEATURES...WITHIN WHICH
PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED. 
SOME BOUNDARY LAYER VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS EVIDENT AND FAVORABLE
STORM-RELATIVE 0-3 KM WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE.  HOWEVER...WITH
STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING LIFTING AWAY FROM REGION...FLOW JUST
ABOVE SFC SHOULD VEER WITH DEEP-LAYER FLOW REMAINING LARGELY
PARALLEL TO FORCING BOUNDARY.

..EDWARDS.. 02/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...

27248050 27358025 27358015 27127999 26697993 25918003
25438014 24988041 24738070 24528132 24448176 24468242
24638300 24668273 24668217 24818145 25228124 25628139
25808177 26378155 26378125 26568100 26748092 26788056
27108046 

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