[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Feb 4 16:57:21 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 041657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041656 
NCZ000-SCZ000-041900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0121
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS...EXTREME
S-CENTRAL/SERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041656Z - 041900Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH 21Z WITH CONVECTION MOVING
NEWD ACROSS ERN HALF SC...INTO CENTRAL/SRN NC. DAMAGING GUSTS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.  AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
WW.

GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS IS UNDERWAY AS WEAK SFC HEATING
-- MODULATED BY CLOUD COVER -- COMBINES WITH WAA TO BOOST SFC
THETAE.  AS A RESULT...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CINH WEAKENING
AND LIFTED PARCELS OVER REGION ARE BECOMING SFC BASED WITH SBCAPES
AROUND 500 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...AND EXPECTED TO REACH
TO NEAR 1000 J/KG THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. 
ACCORDINGLY...COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS SLOWLY INCREASING WITHIN BROKEN
BAND OF CONVECTION...EXTENDING AT 1640Z FROM ABOUT 20 SW CLT TO 20 W
NBC AND MOVING NEWD 30-35 KT.  VWP AND MODEL SOUNDING WINDS YIELD
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEARS FOR BOWS AND SUPERCELLS...I.E. 60-70 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ELONGATED BY 40-50 KT
LLJ.  40-50 KT NONCONVECTIVE GUSTS AND WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED INVOF CHS...AS POCKETS OF LLJ MIX TO SFC.  EXPECT
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS TO TRANSFER MOMENTUM
DOWNWARD AS WELL...RESULTING IN DAMAGING GUST THREAT WITH CONVECTION
OVER REGION.  WARM FRONT ANALYZED INVOF VA BORDER SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY
NWD...SPREADING FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE INTO EXTREME
S-CENTRAL/SERN PORTION VA AS WELL.

..EDWARDS.. 02/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

32138069 32678091 34018093 35058126 35898141 36538021
36537585 35627543 35227548 35027608 34587648 34667691
34367759 33807793 33857853 33507903 33097922 32667987 

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