[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Feb 4 09:50:01 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 040949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040949 
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-041115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0119
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN GA AND FAR NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 040949Z - 041115Z

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL/SRN GA AND POTENTIALLY INTO FAR NRN FL.  A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND
GUSTS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGES IN POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT.

REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT...WHICH AT 09Z
EXTENDED FROM NERN GA SWWD TO SWRN GA AND THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE. 
ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS COLD FRONT
ARE WEAK...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE...IS
AIDING IN DESTABILIZATION FOR NEAR SURFACE TO SURFACE BASED STORMS. 
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SPREADS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN GA AND NRN
FL THROUGH 18Z.  HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.

INCREASING EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE
FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH ISOLATED HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

..PETERS.. 02/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

30538522 32368430 33068370 33458254 33158130 32198062
30798122 30448150 30198214 30198383 30258524 

WWWW