[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Feb 4 07:19:56 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 040719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040719 
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-040815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL/SERN GA/FAR SRN SC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 32...

VALID 040719Z - 040815Z

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FROM NRN FL
THROUGH SERN GA TO FAR SRN SC. HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A NEW WW.

BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE VALID PART OF TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 32 HAS
CONTINUED TO STABILIZE AND FOR THE MOST PART BEEN CONVECTIVELY
OVERTURNED.  THUS...MINIMAL TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED WITH ANY
REMAINING STORMS...GIVEN MOST NEW ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWED STRONG INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE
ERN GULF ACROSS NRN FL TO GA/CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH APPROACH OF NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH NOW
LOCATED OVER LOWER MS VALLEY.  ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE SERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES... AND
SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH
HAIL.

..PETERS.. 02/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

29958385 30828306 32388263 32818124 32488029 30818134
29878127 29278105 28758214 28638272 29428346 

WWWW