[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 040523
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040523 
FLZ000-GAZ000-040700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0117
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 32...

VALID 040523Z - 040700Z

A LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN FL MAY HAVE A
SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL TORNADO
THREAT IS POSSIBLE...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY THREATS WITH THE ACTIVITY.

SCATTERED STORMS ARE REDEVELOPING ALONG A ZONE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE JUST SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN NRN FL. THE STORMS
ARE FORMING NEAR AN AXIS OF LOCALLY HIGHER INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH
MLCAPE VALUES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...THE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A 45 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AS SHOWN
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY THREATS ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT MAY STILL OCCUR.
AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO DROP FURTHER OVERNIGHT AND THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES DRIFTS EWD...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS NRN FL.

..BROYLES.. 02/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

28708246 28858315 29128340 29788328 30478254 30818161
30398102 29698119 29028162 

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