[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Feb 4 02:50:06 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 040249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040249 
FLZ000-040445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0849 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 040249Z - 040445Z

LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A
SUPERCELL MOVES EWD INTO THE MIAMI AREA OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

AN ISOLATED STRONG SUPERCELL IS ONGOING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE
MCS IN SRN FL. THE MCS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SWLYS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC
ANALYSIS. SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE
VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE SUPERCELL. IN
ADDITION...WSR-88D VWP IN SRN FL SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KT WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 1 KM. AS A
RESULT...CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
WITH A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT POSSIBLE. AS THE STORM MATURES...A
BOWING STRUCTURE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND
DAMAGE IN THE MIAMI AREA INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 02/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...

25248060 25358087 25688088 25848085 25978058 25968030
25948015 25798012 25388030 

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