[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Feb 4 00:08:50 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 040008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040008 
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-040145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0608 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE/FAR SRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 30...

VALID 040008Z - 040145Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 30 WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
LIKELY IN THE CNTRL AND ERN PART OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WW 30 WILL BE REPLACED SHORTLY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN FL. IN
ADDITION...A NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
WRN FL PANHANDLE AND SRN AL LATER THIS EVENING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS SEVERAL SMALL MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER THE ERN FL PANHANDLE EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE
NERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE ACTIVITY IS FORMING IN RESPONSE TO A LEAD
SHORTWAVE EJECTING NEWD OUT OF A LARGE TROUGH IN THE MS VALLEY. AS
THE STRONG LIFT SHIFTS EWD THIS EVENING...THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A LARGER MCS AND DRIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NRN FL THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EXTENDING NWD ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FL WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NWD THIS EVENING. IN
RESPONSE...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE ALLOWING AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT TO CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10
SOUTHEAST OF THE TALLAHASSEE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. LARGE
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
ROTATING STORMS.

OTHERWISE...REDEVELOPMENT BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS SRN AL AND THE WRN
FL PANHANDLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE MAIN THROUGH SHIFTS EWD
TONIGHT. IF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAN OVERCOME A WEAK CAPPING
INVERSION...LINEAR DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE POSSIBLE WEST OF WW 30 LATE
THIS EVENING. A WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE AND A NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF THIS SCENARIO PANS
OUT.

..BROYLES.. 02/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...MOB...

29428462 29688578 30148714 30618775 31188761 31688709
31218543 30968442 30828224 30768176 30078151 29408188
29328256 29378363 

WWWW