[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 032120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032119 
FLZ000-032315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0112
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE TO NWRN FL
PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 032119Z - 032315Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER GULF COAST BETWEEN
PFN-AQQ AND SEWD THROUGH FL COASTAL BEND.  DAMAGING HAIL/GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE AND TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS WELL ONCE
SFC DEW POINTS INCREASE NEAR COAST.  AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WW.

TSTM COVERAGE HAS INCREASED ACROSS NERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO
DESTABILIZATION...WEAK CINH...AND LIFT ALONG/N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED AT 21Z FROM SRQ AREA NWWD TO NEAR BUOY
42036...BECOMING DIFFUSE FARTHER NW TO ROUGHLY 65 S PFN.  BOUNDARY
SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY OR DRIFT NWD OVER THIS REGION AS IT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.  AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE BUOYANT
THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ITS N AS OUTFLOW POOL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND MOIST/WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES BOOST LOW LEVEL THETAE.  ALTHOUGH
SOME DIABATIC SFC COOLING MAY RESTRICT INCREASE IN SBCAPE...SUCH A
STABLE LAYER WOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW AND MAY NOT PRECLUDE EFFECTIVE
PARCEL FROM REACHING SFC.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED
MUCAPES TO NEAR 2000 J/KG...WITH BULK SHEAR 60-65 KT IN BUOYANT
LAYER...SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS. LEFT-MOVING/ANTICYCLONIC SUPERCELL
ALREADY IS EVIDENT INVOF NWRN END OF BOUNDARY...ABOUT 60 S PFN AND
MOVING NEWD TOWARD COAST.

..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

30138578 30428503 30658404 30528273 29748210 28588191
28388245 28438271 28908281 29068313 29598350 30028405
29678472 29538510 29658536 

WWWW