[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Feb 3 20:35:01 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 032034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032034 
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-032230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0111
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN LA AND CENTRAL/ERN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 29...

VALID 032034Z - 032230Z

CONTINUE WW ALONG AND E OF E EDGE OF PRIMARY PRECIP BAND...WHERE A
FEW SUPERCELLS HAVE PERSISTED. MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING
HAIL...OCCASIONAL SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE.  NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY
ABOUT 23Z E OF THIS WW IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

SUPERCELLS CROSSING MS RIVER FROM TENSAS PARISH...AND EXITING WARREN
COUNTY MS...ARE MOVING VARIABLY TOWARD ENE THROUGH ESE AT 30-35
KT...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL DAMAGING
GUSTS. ASSOCIATED LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD DIABATICALLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS ACROSS
CENTRAL MS...AMIDST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...HELPING TO MAINTAIN
ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.  SEVERAL REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO 1.75
INCHES DIAMETER HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM BENEATH THIS CONVECTION
DURING PAST 2 HOURS...AS WELL AS A 61 KT GUST ESTIMATE FROM MADISON
PARISH.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OF INSOLATION ACROSS
ERN PORTIONS WW.  KINEMATICALLY...WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
CONTRIBUTING TO SMALL 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS...BUT WITH RIGHTMOST
OBSERVED MOTIONS INPUT...0-1 KM SRH 100-150 J/KG STILL CAN BE
DERIVED FROM JAN VWP.

..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...

31469517 32449382 33289167 33459064 32799028 31169246
30809424 31099510 

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