[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Feb 3 19:40:11 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 031939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031939 
FLZ000-032045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 28...

VALID 031939Z - 032045Z

WW SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 20Z.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM SW EDGE OF TAMPA BAY SEWD ACROSS
DE SOTO COUNTY THEN EWD OVER NRN PORTION LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS -- PARTICULARLY ALONG AND S OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WHERE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY IS MAXIMIZED AND MORE DISCRETE
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE
EWD...GRADUALLY RISING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER SWRN COAST.  RIGHT
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ELY FLOW COMPONENT OPTIMALLY ELONGATES
HODOGRAPHS AND MAXIMIZES DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  ACCORDINGLY...CELLS
CROSSING THIS BOUNDARY MAY TIGHTEN A LOW-MIDLEVEL MESOCYCLONE...WITH
ACCOMPANYING/BRIEF WINDOW OF HAIL OR TORNADO RISK.

S OF BOUNDARY...WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT
HODOGRAPH AREA.  ISOLATED STRONG/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL FROM TSTMS ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARY. 
HOWEVER...THICK ANVIL CANOPY STREAMING FROM MCS OVER OPEN GULF MAY
LIMIT FURTHER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OVER AREA.  ORGANIZED SEVERE
RISK APPEARS TOO LOW TO MAINTAIN OR RE-ISSUE WW.

..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

27918293 28038217 27508077 27188018 26428044 25838188 

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