[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Feb 3 16:40:57 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 031640
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031640 COR
FLZ000-031845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 28...

VALID 031640Z - 031845Z

CORRECTED FOR WW TYPE

SFC MESOANALYSIS REVEALS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR VRB WWD ACROSS
NRN PORTIONS OKEECHOBEE/HIGHLANDS AND HARDEE COUNTIES THEN OVER SRN
PORTIONS TAMPA BAY...MOVING S 10-15 KT OVER MOST OF THAT AREA. 
MARGINAL HAIL/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL CONTINUES WITH TSTMS MOVING OFF
GULF AND N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER TBW REGION.  TORNADO POTENTIAL
HAS DIMINISHED WITH THAT ACTIVITY GIVEN EFFECTIVELY ANAFRONTAL
NATURE OF BOUNDARY...AND LIKELIHOOD THAT MOST TSTMS WILL UNDERCUT
THEMSELVES WITH STABLE NEAR-SFC AIR BY MOVING OVER OUTFLOW POOL. 
PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH REMAINDER WW PERIOD MAY BE WITH
MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AT LEAST 30-40 NM S OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IN AREA OF STRONGEST DIABATIC SFC HEATING...SUCH DISTANCE
GIVING TSTMS TIME TO MATURE BEFORE INTERACTING WITH BOUNDARY.  50-60
KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND APPROXIMATELY 1000 J/KG MLCAPES SHOULD
PERSIST OVER AREAS JUST S OF BOUNDARY.

..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

27178013 26678110 26418212 27328281 27768269 28328067 

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