[MCD] SWOMCD
Mesoscale Convective Discussions
MCD at goshenarc.org
Fri Feb 3 16:38:49 UTC 2006
ACUS11 KWNS 031638
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031638
FLZ000-031845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1038 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 28...
VALID 031638Z - 031845Z
SFC MESOANALYSIS REVEALS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR VRB WWD ACROSS
NRN PORTIONS OKEECHOBEE/HIGHLANDS AND HARDEE COUNTIES THEN OVER SRN
PORTIONS TAMPA BAY...MOVING S 10-15 KT OVER MOST OF THAT AREA.
MARGINAL HAIL/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL CONTINUES WITH TSTMS MOVING OFF
GULF AND N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER TBW REGION. TORNADO POTENTIAL
HAS DIMINISHED WITH THAT ACTIVITY GIVEN EFFECTIVELY ANAFRONTAL
NATURE OF BOUNDARY...AND LIKELIHOOD THAT MOST TSTMS WILL UNDERCUT
THEMSELVES WITH STABLE NEAR-SFC AIR BY MOVING OVER OUTFLOW POOL.
PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH REMAINDER WW PERIOD MAY BE WITH
MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AT LEAST 30-40 NM S OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IN AREA OF STRONGEST DIABATIC SFC HEATING...SUCH DISTANCE
GIVING TSTMS TIME TO MATURE BEFORE INTERACTING WITH BOUNDARY. 50-60
KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND APPROXIMATELY 1000 J/KG MLCAPES SHOULD
PERSIST OVER AREAS JUST S OF BOUNDARY.
..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
27178013 26678110 26418212 27328281 27768269 28328067
WWWW
More information about the Mcd
mailing list