[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 031620
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031619 
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-031845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E TX...NRN AND W-CENTRAL LA...EXTREME SERN
AR...W-CENTRAL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031619Z - 031845Z

HAIL POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ATTM IN CORRIDOR FROM E-CENTRAL TX TO
W-CENTRAL MS...AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHERE
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM FOR
THIS REGIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED SW SHV INVOF TX/LA BORDER AND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THIS SWATH...THROUGH
AT LEAST 20Z.  LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN FURTHER OVER THIS REGION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH
1. MIDLEVEL COOLING OBSERVED UPSTREAM IN 12Z RAOBS THAT IS FCST TO
SHIFT SEWD AHEAD OF MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
2. WAA IN LOW LEVELS...ALONG AND ATOP STABLE LAYER NOTED IN OBSERVED
AND RUC SOUNDINGS.

COMBINING THOSE FACTORS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTENING YIELDS ELEVATED
MUCAPES 500-800 J/KG.  LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING AND PRECLUDE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...HOWEVER VERY LONG HODOGRAPHS THROUGH LOW-MIDLEVELS OF
BUOYANT LAYER ARE EVIDENT BASED ON VWP/PROFILER WINDS...MODIFIED
SHV/FWD RAOBS AND RUC PROGS.  55-70 KT EFFECTIVE/ELEVATED VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS ROOTED ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER.

..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...

31469517 32449382 33289167 33459064 32799028 31169246
30809424 31099510 

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