[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Feb 3 13:02:23 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 031302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031301 
FLZ000-031330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0106
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031301Z - 031330Z

WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL FL...ESPECIALLY FOR
WEST CENTRAL FL.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE 1245Z POSITION ANALYZED FROM
NRN BREVARD COUNTY SWWD TO NRN POLK COUNTY AND THEN WWD TO NRN
PINELLAS COUNTY.  SURFACE PRESSURE FALL ANALYSIS INDICATED A
WEAKNESS IN PRESSURE RISES EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GULF INTO WEST
CENTRAL FL AT 12Z.  THIS SUGGESTS THE WRN PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE A SLOWER SWD PROGRESSION AS IS CURRENTLY
OBSERVED IN REGIONAL RADAR DATA.  ALSO THIS WOULD ALSO INDICATE AN
INCREASE IN VERTICAL MOTION AND A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BE
SURFACE BASED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FL THIS MORNING.

12Z TBW SOUNDING INDICATED A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH ONLY
MINOR SURFACE HEATING REQUIRED TO WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY TO
ALLOW FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS.  VIS IMAGERY SHOWED BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS OVER WEST CENTRAL FL SUGGESTING THE CAP SHOULD EASILY WEAKEN
BY MID MORNING AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 70S. 
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT TORNADOES ALONG WITH
DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.

..PETERS.. 02/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

28388270 28388223 28628138 28938086 28468072 28008059
27578080 27388186 27198255 27618285 28088289 

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