[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 030653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030653 
FLZ000-030830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FL BIG BEND REGION

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 030653Z - 030830Z

ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL BIG BEND
COUNTIES OF DIXIE...LEVY...CITRUS BY 0730Z...AND THEN POTENTIALLY
FARTHER INLAND FROM UNION TO SUMTER COUNTIES.  WELL DEFINED BOW
ECHO...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NERN GULF /65 SW CTY/...WAS MOVING
TO THE ENE AROUND 45 KT ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED
GENERALLY EWD FROM THE BOW ACROSS THE NRN FL.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE
PENINSULA...WITH THE BOW ECHO CURRENTLY EXITING A REGION OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY OVER THE ERN GULF. HOWEVER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WERE IN THE MIDDLE 60S.  RUC FORECAST SOUNDING
FOR NRN FL MODIFIED WITH THIS SURFACE MOISTURE VALUE RESULTS IN A
WEAKLY CAPPED AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  SINCE THE BOW IS
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF FL THAT HAS NOT BEEN
CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED...AND SLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING THE GREATER
MOISTURE NWD TOWARD THE BOUNDARY...THERE MAY BE GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE.

..PETERS.. 02/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

29658339 29838311 30128236 30078203 29208184 28948181
28678224 28608268 28968274 29378330 29508344 

WWWW