[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Feb 3 01:00:59 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 030100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030100 
FLZ000-GAZ000-030230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CST THU FEB 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL AND FAR SE GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 27...

VALID 030100Z - 030230Z

A TRAINING LINE OF STRONG STORMS IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING EWD ACROSS
NRN FL. A SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH THE LINE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN PART OF WW 27.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A STRONG ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS NRN FL. A LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN
IS EVIDENT ON RADAR EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM
SRN GA SWWD INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
RELATIVELY WEAK...SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S F.
IN ADDITION...88D VWP IN NRN FL SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 55-60 KT WITH
0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT. AS A RESULT...SUPERCELLS MAY HAVE A BRIEF
TORNADO THREAT WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ALSO POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER THIS EVENING AS THE
SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THIS COMBINED WITH DECREASING
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASE OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 02/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

31118207 31048166 30608132 30078142 29708222 29288355
29328401 29568436 29968414 30658318 

WWWW