[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 022255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022254 
FLZ000-GAZ000-030100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CST THU FEB 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL / EXTREME SERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 022254Z - 030100Z

ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING AS WELL.
IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SAME AREAS.
A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO VEER THIS
EVENING. THUS...WIND DAMAGE APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
EMBEDDED BOWS AND SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES MOVING ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR PARALLEL. 

ISOLATED AND BRIEF TORNADOES MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY THROUGH 03Z WHEN
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST. THREAT WILL ALSO BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON ADVECTION OF TRUE TROPICAL AIR MASS INLAND FROM THE
SW...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TRUE SURFACE BASED STORMS.

FURTHER...GPS WATER VAPOR SENSORS ALSO INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH VALUES OF OVER 1.50
INCHES NOW INTO NRN FL. OFFSHORE BUOYS ALSO INDICATE WEDGE OF
TROPICAL AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ADVECTING NEWD. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN UPPER FLOW PATTERN...AND SLOWLY VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW...FORECAST STORM MOTIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MAY
SLOW WITH TIME. THUS...LONG DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY.

..JEWELL.. 02/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...

29728529 30658368 31588138 31378096 29648112 29058275
28688431 28758531 29318604 

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