[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 021642
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021641 
FLZ000-021845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS COASTAL FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021641Z - 021845Z

TSTMS MOVING FROM GULF WATERS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS GULF/FRANKLIN
COUNTIES MAY BECOME SFC-BASED. ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
DOWNDRAFTS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH BOW ECHO MODE...AND
TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP WITH EMBEDDED MESOCIRCULATIONS. 
THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED IN SPACE/TIME FOR WW.

ISOLATED HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE...BOTH OVER THOSE AREAS AND INLAND
20-30 NM TOWARD I-10 CORRIDOR...FROM BOTH MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND AND
MORE DISCRETE BUT ELEVATED TSTMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF MCS.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM S
AAF AS OF 16Z...AND THIS FRONT MAY MOVE ASHORE BRIEFLY E OF CAPE SAN
BLAS AND BEFORE PASSAGE OF TSTM LINE.  12Z TLH RAOB WAS
REPRESENTATIVE OF MORE DRY/STABLE LOW-MIDLEVEL AIR MASS THAN
ENVIRONMENT NOW EVIDENT S OF AAF.  MUCAPES ARE ESTIMATED 1500-2000
J/KG S OF MARINE FRONT.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC-BASED
PARCELS WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR 70 F AS OBSERVED ALONG/S OF FRONT. 
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE WITH BACKED
FLOW AND ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS...50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND 0-1 KM
SRH 200-500 J/KG.

..EDWARDS.. 02/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

29978550 30218536 30518468 30518402 30068394 29878432
29538500 29688541 

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