[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 021213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021213 
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-021345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0613 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN FL PNHDL / SERN AL AND SWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021213Z - 021345Z

POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AFTER 13Z AS MCS APPROACHES DISCUSSION AREA FROM THE W.  CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

AS OF 1155Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A QUASI-LINEAR MCS WITH
EMBEDDED BOWS...LEWPS AND HP SUPERCELLS FROM 35 E MOB TO 35 SE BVE
WITH A SYSTEM MOTION OF 250/40-45 KTS. NRN PORTION OF THIS MCS
/OVER BALDWIN COUNTY AL/ REMAINS N OF PRIMARY SURFACE WARM FRONT
WHICH EXTENDED FROM INTERSECTION WITH MCS S OF MOB TO ROUGHLY 65 SSW
OF AAF.

GIVEN THE RAPID ENEWD MOTION OF THE MCS...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE STABLE NEAR-SURFACE
INVERSION AS THEY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN FL
PNHDL/SERN AL AND SWRN GA AFTER 13Z.  THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATING NEWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL GULF COAST...COUPLED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL.

AN ASSOCIATED TORNADO AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD
INCREASE SHOULD STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED...THOUGH CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THIS SCENARIO REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN.

..MEAD.. 02/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

30918633 31338608 31458528 31258434 31028390 30318379
29928405 29538505 29578586 30068642 

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