[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 022104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022104 
FLZ000-022300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CST THU FEB 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN FL PANHANDLE AND NWRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 022104Z - 022300Z

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER GULF AND
MOVING INLAND FROM AAF AREA AROUND APALACHEE BAY.  SHEAR PROFILES
ARE FCST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  HOWEVER THEY WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE IN NEAR TERM FOR
SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHO MODES WITH MESOCYCLONES...PER MODIFIED VWP
AND RUC FCST HODOGRAPHS.  A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE INLAND
AND ADDITIONAL WATERSPOUT/TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS NEAR COAST. 
DAMAGING WATERSPOUT WAS REPORTED AT 1930S BETWEEN MAINLAND AND ST
GEORGE ISLAND.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MARINE/WARM FRONT BETWEEN BUOY SGOF1 AND
AAF...BASICALLY ONSHORE SRN FRANKLIN COUNTY...THEN ARCHING SEWD-NEWD
TOWARD GNV.  AIR MASS ACROSS PENINSULA IS WELL MIXED AND RELATIVELY
DRY...BUT FAVORABLY MOIST OVER GULF WITH DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F.
 ANY VEERING OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH BOTH
RUC PROGS AND SFC ISALLOBARIC TRENDS SHOWING PRESSURE FALLS SHIFTING
EWD INTO CAROLINAS.  THIS MAY RESULT IN MOIST ADVECTION INLAND FROM
CEDAR KEY/CTY AREA NWD TO I-10 AND AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND.

LINE OF STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AS
IT MOVES EWD ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR TOWARD LAKE CITY AREA. 
INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS HAS RELATIVELY WEAK SFC DEW POINTS -- 61-64
DEG F. GIVEN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY SLGTLY ABOVE MOIST ADIABATIC
THIS LIMITS MUCAPE IN MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS TO UNDER 500 J/KG. 
HOWEVER...SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS TO ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS
TO MAINTAIN POTENTIALLY DAMAGING INTENSITY BETWEEN CLOUD BASE AND
SFC.

..EDWARDS.. 02/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

29688536 30098515 30428451 30548227 29678265 29528333
29908410 29528507 

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