[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Feb 2 10:09:46 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 021009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021009 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-021145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0099
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0409 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN LA / SRN MS / SWRN AL / WRN FL PNHDL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 26...

VALID 021009Z - 021145Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
CONTINUES ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING.

AS OF 0950Z...LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A COMPLEX BOW ECHO
STRUCTURE EVOLVING OVER FAR SERN LA INTO SRN MS WITH A SYSTEM
MOVEMENT OF 245/40-45 KTS.  THE CYCLONIC LINE END VORTEX CURRENTLY
OVER PEARL RIVER COUNTY MS HAS SHOWN A PERSISTENT
CIRCULATION...THOUGH RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR OBSERVED
SURFACE CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS PORTION OF MCS IS LIKELY
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED.  EXTRAPOLATION TAKES THIS FEATURE N OF WW 26 INTO
LAMAR...FORREST AND PERHAPS PERRY COUNTIES BY 1030Z.  WHILE SOME
THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR STRONG WIND GUST WILL EXIST N OF WW
AREA...THIS PORTION OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH BECOME PROGRESSIVELY
MORE ELEVATED WITH NWD EXTENT.

THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR BOTH MESOCYCLONE AND NON-DESCENDING TYPE
TORNADOES WILL EXIST ALONG CREST OF THE BOW ECHO SWWD ALONG THE WAVY
TRAILING FLANK WHERE RADAR DATA SHOW A MORE DISCRETE HP SUPERCELL 35
WSW OF BVE.  MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE APEX OF THIS BOW IS N OF
RETREATING SURFACE WARM FRONT...WITH SRN PORTION OF MCS ROOTED IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER.  RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE STRONGLY SHEARED
LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT INVOF OF THIS WARM FRONT WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF
400-500 M2/S2.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND S OF BOWING PORTION OF MCS
WHERE RADAR DATA SHOW A WELL-DEFINED MID-ALTITUDE RADIAL CONVERGENCE
SIGNATURE /MARC/.  EXPECT THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO DEVELOP EWD
INTO THE MOBILE AREA BY 1100-1130Z.

..MEAD.. 02/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

30989067 31058649 29368646 29379067 

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