[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 020905
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020905 
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-021030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0098
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 020905Z - 021030Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUST WILL EXIST ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.  THOUGH A
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

A SEPARATE..CYCLONICALLY CURVED CLUSTER OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY AND EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE AS OF 0850Z IN STRONGLY
DIVERGENT REGION AHEAD OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY.  RESIDUAL SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S COUPLED WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -15 TO -16 C AT 500
MB ARE RESULTING IN RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
RESULTANT WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY / MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG /.
THIS AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS CLEARLY SEEN ON THE WINNFIELD LA
PROFILER WITH WINDS VEERING THEN BACKING WITH HEIGHT.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL TEND TO
MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF NRN LA OVER THE NEXT 2-3
HRS...AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT OPENS AND LIFTS NEWD.  THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME AS THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES MOVE OVER A PROGRESSIVELY MORE CONVECTIVELY-PROCESSED /I.E.
STABLE/ SURFACE AIR MASS.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

FARTHER S...MORE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION MAY PERSIST OVER CNTRL
INTO SWRN LA ALONG WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SAGGING SEWD.  THE PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR HERE APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH TIME...THOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.

..MEAD.. 02/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...

31869374 32309363 32899287 33089201 32939104 32319101
31549164 31179230 31079316 31319366 

WWWW