[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 020753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020752 
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-020915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0097
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA / FAR SRN MS / FAR SWRN AL / WRN FL PNHDL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 020752Z - 020915Z

THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NE OF WW 25
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AND AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED JET STREAK ROUNDING THE
TROUGH BASE OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO SERN LA. IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED SE OF POE WITH AN
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS SRN LA.  STRONGEST
PRESSURE FALLS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED OVER SERN LA INTO SRN
MS...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO COUPLING OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND DEEPER
ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK.  

GIVEN THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING STORMS OVER S-CNTRL
LA...IT APPEARS THAT THIS STRONGER FORCING HAS BEGUN TO ACT ON
SLIGHTLY MORE BUOYANT AIR MASS MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE NRN GULF. 
WHILE 06Z SLIDELL SOUNDING SHOWED ONLY WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...INTENSIFICATION OF SLY LLJ TO 50-60 KTS THROUGH 02/12Z
WILL SUPPORT FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IN VICINITY OF WARM
FRONT SLOWLY RETREATING NWD.  THUS...IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS SERN LA INTO FAR SRN MS/SWRN
AL AND PERHAPS INTO THE WRN FL PNHDL.

..MEAD.. 02/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...

29979027 30499030 30738958 30908782 30738724 30248706
29818732 29469001 

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