[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Sep 29 12:25:00 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 291223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291223 
VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-291400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2296
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/PA...NRN NJ/NEW YORK CITY AREA NORTHWARD
THRU VT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 825...

VALID 291223Z - 291400Z

CONTINUE WW 825.

THOUGH WEAKENING OF UPDRAFTS OCCURRED ALONG NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE
AS IT PROGRESSED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK
STATE...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINED A BIT COOLER/MORE STABLE
THAN FARTHER UPSTREAM...RE-INTENSIFICATION IS ONGOING AND EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE.  MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY BY THE
14-15Z TIME FRAME...AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES INTO THE DELAWARE AND
HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.  

SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NOW CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 60S THROUGH
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW JERSEY...AND THIS MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEW YORK STATE.  COUPLED WITH AT
LEAST WEAK SURFACE HEATING...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL
DESTABILIZE AS STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVERSPREADS
REGION WITH APPROACH OF VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  AS CONVECTION
INTENSIFIES...PEAK SURFACE GUSTS WILL STRENGTHEN AS WELL...AS
MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 50-70 KT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS
TRANSFERRED DOWNWARD.

..KERR.. 09/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

44997296 44247318 42897350 41657404 41137451 40417504
40367596 40507669 41197628 41887608 43057567 43847515
44877481 

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