[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Sep 29 14:59:58 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 291458
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291458 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-291700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2297
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0958 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...VT...NH...MA...ME

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 825...

VALID 291458Z - 291700Z

INTENSE COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FROM ERN
NY AND ACROSS VT OVER THE NEXT 1.5 HOURS. PORTIONS OF MA...NH AND ME
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH
BY NOON EDT.

STRONGLY FORCED COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 50KT WAS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 40KT LATE THIS
MORNING. DESPITE A DISTINCT DECREASE IN CG LTG OVER THE PAST 2
HOURS...A  SEGMENT OF THE LINE APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING SOME
STRENGTHENING FROM ESSEX COUNTY IN UPSTATE NY TO SULLIVAN COUNTY IN
THE SRN CATSKILL MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR MASS ACROSS VT WAS LIMITING INSTABILITY EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL SLY GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
ARE LIKELY GUSTING TO AT LEAST 40-50KT...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EVEN LIMITED MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE
SQUALL LINE SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW DAMAGING CONVECTIVE
WIND GUSTS IN WW 825 OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

FARTHER EAST...SURFACE HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF NH AND INTO INTERIOR
ME MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR TSTMS TO BE EITHER MAINTAINED OR
STRENGTHENED AS FRONTAL CIRCULATION DEVELOPS INTO THESE AREAS BY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...AND VERY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL
FLOW...A NEW WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY EAST OF WW 825 IN ABOUT AN HOUR.

..CARBIN.. 09/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

44386932 42677082 42077158 41607319 40767488 40317620
41857602 44117526 44967422 45277133 47126946 

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