[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 291010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291009 
MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-291115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2295
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/PA...NJ INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291009Z - 291115Z

NEW WW LIKELY WILL BE NEED EAST/SOUTH OF WW 824 BY 12Z.  A SLIGHT
RISK IS BEING ADDED TO UPCOMING OUTLOOK UPDATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES THROUGH MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. 


STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IS
MAINTAINING NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE
EAST OF CURRENT WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ONSET OF
SURFACE HEATING...AND TONGUE OF MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD FROM
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION THROUGH THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...SEEM LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEPENING/INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS CONVECTION THROUGH
THE MID DAY HOURS.  THIS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW...WITH PEAK SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 70 KT POSSIBLE.  

AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...SQUALL LINE
IS EXPECTED INTO THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NEW JERSEY BY
15-16Z...BEFORE CONTINUING INTO/THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA BY 18Z.

..KERR.. 09/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

45977022 44327021 41867212 40127441 39727684 39807841
41417773 42577704 43807672 

WWWW