[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 290740
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290740 
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-MDZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-290945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2294
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...LWR GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 290740Z - 290945Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT.  WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS TAKING ON INCREASING NEUTRAL TO
NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.  ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAS SUPPORTED NARROW INTENSIFYING
CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...WHERE
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED.  ALTHOUGH CAPE IS NOT LARGE...AND STORMS
LIKELY ARE FAIRLY LOW-TOPPED...ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK AND BEYOND.  BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF STORMS IS
STILL RATHER MILD...NEAR 70F...ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN KENTUCKY/WEST
VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK STATE.  THIS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...AS CONVECTION ENHANCES
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER ASSOCIATED WITH 50+ KT MEAN ENVIRONMENTAL
FLOW...SUPPORTING GUSTS BEYOND THAT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

..KERR.. 09/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...

43317751 41937804 40097872 38947937 37458131 36918197
36698381 37038443 38778249 40118137 41278087 42208064
43228028 43798013 

WWWW