[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Sep 28 17:17:25 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 281716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281715 
FLZ000-GAZ000-281915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2287
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA AND SRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281715Z - 281915Z

INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
NWD INTO SRN GA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTAIN
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE WW...HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AS CONVECTION
INCREASES.

AT 17Z...SLOW-MOVING MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO HAVE ROTATED
ENEWD TO A POSITION NEAR MLB ALONG THE E-CENTRAL FL COAST PER RECENT
WV IMAGERY. THE 12Z MIAMI AND 14Z CAPE CANAVERAL SOUNDINGS INDICATED
COOL 500MB TEMPERATURES /AROUND -10C/ ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LOW...CONTRIBUTING TO 850-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM AND MUCAPE
VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG. CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION...WITH GENERAL INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
MDT AND TOWERING CU NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. WHILE MID-LEVEL
DYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD BE STRONGEST EAST OF FL
PENINSULA...THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS /HIGH CAPE AND MINIMAL CIN/ ARE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FOCUS STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING PERIOD. WEAK SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 15-20 KT SHOULD LIMIT CELL
DURATIONS...LEAVING WET MICROBURSTS AS THE MAIN THREAT. SMALL TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT GIVEN WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

..BANACOS.. 09/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

27018232 27888266 28348262 28698258 28948260 29388302
29538331 30588301 30758276 30938242 31098217 31128183
30988157 30028145 28688084 27358025 26428031 25978037
25458075 25468107 25968171 

WWWW