[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Sep 28 18:06:17 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 281805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281804 
NMZ000-COZ000-AZZ000-282000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2288
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL/WRN NM...SWRN CO...AND FAR E-CENTRAL AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281804Z - 282000Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL/WRN NM AND SWRN CO...WITH
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE AS FAR WEST AS THE ERN MOGOLLON RIM IN
E-CENTRAL AZ. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STORMS PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL. 

NEARLY STATIONARY MID-LEVEL LOW OVER SERN UT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG SWLY 500MB WINDS /40-45 KT/ AND SFC-6KM SHEAR /50-55KT/
ACROSS NERN AZ INTO NWRN NM. DAYTIME HEATING IS GRADUALLY
DESTABILIZING ELEVATED TERRAIN AREAS OF SWRN CO...N-CENTRAL/WRN NM
AND E-CENTRAL AZ...ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH MID-LEVEL JET AXIS AND
ENHANCED BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING SW-NE. VERTICAL MIXING AS
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS WILL GRADUALLY DRY LOWER-LEVELS WITH SLOWLY
FALLING SFC DEWPOINTS ALREADY OBSERVED. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES WITH COMBINATION OF INSOLATION AND COLD UPPER-LOW FROM THE SFC
THROUGH MID-LEVELS SHOULD MAINTAIN MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGH THIS
EVENING /MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/. GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES...LONG-LIVED STORMS INITIATING OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN ARE
POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. SPATIAL EXTENT OF
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE CONFINED BY STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
BANKED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS...AND BY
WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS S-CENTRAL NM. DRY
SWLY MID-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL ALSO LIMIT THREAT OF SEVERE
CONVECTION OVER MOST OF AZ...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS
WITH HAIL POSSIBLE.

..BANACOS.. 09/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...TWC...FGZ...

35010552 34550620 34140691 33740805 33570896 33530965
33820995 34140975 34570919 35520866 36640834 37210836
37840876 38140900 38680895 38680763 38500730 37840644
37430601 36610578 

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