[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Sep 28 16:58:03 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 281656
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281656 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-281830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2286
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NERN/ERN MO AND WRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281656Z - 281830Z

ISOLATED HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NERN/ERN MO AND THEN SPREAD
EWD INTO WRN IL.  NEW DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN EXTENT OF
THE CENTRAL MO THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...WILL BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION AND A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CENTRAL
MO COUNTIES OF PETTIS/SRN SALINE AND WRN COOPER.  THIS STORM APPEARS
TO BE ELEVATED...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP ACROSS THIS REGION
PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.  NONETHELESS...SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
SRN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL MO IS FUELING THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVER OK INTO SERN KS/SWRN MO WHERE MUCAPE RANGES FROM
1000-2000 J/KG.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON THE SRN
EXTENT OF THIS TSTM COMPLEX...WHERE LLJ IMPINGES ON THIS ACTIVITY. 
EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL. 
IF STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED...THEN STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD ALSO
BE A THREAT.

..PETERS.. 09/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

38129355 39569266 40409183 41159097 41208940 38538997
38189113 38029277 

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