[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 281109
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281109 
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-281315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2285
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0609 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN KS INTO WRN MO...EXTREME NE OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281109Z - 281315Z

ZONE OF ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF 40+ KT SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...NOW
SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS.  THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DIG INTO THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE HAS ALREADY INCREASED
TO AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR PARCELS LIFTED TO LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION
ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION LAYER.  FURTHER DESTABILIZATION APPEARS
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI THROUGH MID MORNING...AS BETTER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...REFLECTED BY LOWER 70S DEW POINTS ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD...AND MID-LEVEL INHIBITION
WEAKENS.  COUPLED WITH STRONG CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR IN BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN
STRONGER CELLS.

WITH ONLY A GRADUAL ELIMINATION OF NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL INVERSION
LAYER...AND TENDENCY OF STRONGER CONVECTION TO BE UNDERCUT BY COLD
FRONT...DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH MID DAY SEEMS LIMITED.

..KERR.. 09/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

37509715 38909534 39579381 38849324 37979362 36819448
36219528 36379616 36739700 

WWWW