[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Sep 26 15:34:50 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 261533
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261533 
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-261700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2284
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1033 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MS/PARTS OF SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE/SWRN
GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261533Z - 261700Z

ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO INTO
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SERN MS INTO PARTS OF SRN AL/WRN FL
PANHANDLE...AND SWRN GA.

14Z MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN AL SWWD TO
THE FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE...WITH A SECOND TROUGH/CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM AROUND 45 S SEM /ALONG THE INITIAL BOUNDARY/ WNWWD
ACROSS CENTRAL MS TO SRN AR.  SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE ADVECTING A
HIGH DEWPOINT /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S/ AIR MASS ACROSS
LA INTO SERN MS/SWRN AL.  APPARENT MCV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER FAR
WRN FL PANHANDLE PER SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
ASCENT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY
THE FL PANHANDLE...AS THIS FEATURE DRIFTS SLOWLY TOWARD THE SSE.  IN
ADDITION...THE MCV WILL LIKELY ENHANCE KINEMATICS/SRH VALUES ACROSS
THE FL PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF SRN AL AND POTENTIALLY SWRN GA FOR AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF A TORNADO OR TWO...GIVEN LOW LCLS WITHIN MOIST
AIR MASS.

FARTHER W...SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND W OF THE NNE-SSW ORIENTED
BOUNDARY MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN THE CAPPED AIR MASS. 
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE VEERED TO WLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS 
BOUNDARY...AREA VADS INDICATED A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH 0-3 KM SRH VALUES RANGING FROM 250-300 M2/S2. 
THUS...IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS WARM SECTOR REGION ACROSS FAR
SERN MS INTO SWRN AL AND FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE...THEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT WOULD EXIST.

..PETERS.. 09/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

30328883 30958896 31858863 32008786 32008510 31878351
29668355 29448487 29728784 29858829 

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