[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 250716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250715 
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-250845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2275
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD...NRN NEB...SRN MN

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 250715Z - 250845Z

RISK FOR LARGE HAIL SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
TOTALS WITH PERSISTENT/SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING CELLS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
REGIME IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
SUPPRESSING NOSE OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL RIDGE. 
STABILIZATION OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING LARGE HAIL
THREAT...BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.  LOW/MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER WILL
LIKELY REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY...AND FOCUS FOR PERSISTENT/TRAINING
CONVECTION...THROUGH 12Z.  FARTHER UPSTREAM...THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT OUT OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...BUT TRAILING EDGE OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION SEEMS LIKELY TO
FINALLY SHIFT INTO OR EAST OF MITCHELL BY DAYBREAK.

..KERR.. 09/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR...UNR...

43220093 44249929 44629843 44849660 44719533 44689329
43809171 43459210 43439410 43269599 43099711 43279816
43149838 

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