[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 250807
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250807 
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-MOZ000-LAZ000-250900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2276
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN AR...MS...ERN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 817...

VALID 250807Z - 250900Z

A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY 09Z.

LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...NOW SOUTH OF HOT SPRINGS AR...IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE MORE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD CENTRAL ARKANSAS. 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES TO EVOLVE IN CONFLUENT ZONE ON
ITS EASTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...SUPPORTED BY INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH NARROW TONGUE OF MID 70S DEW POINTS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THOUGH MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS SLOWLY RISING...WIND
FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC POTENTIAL INTO...AND LIKELY
THROUGH...THE DAYTIME HOURS.  

THROUGH DAYBREAK...RISK FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES SEEMS
MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO NARROW MOIST AXIS NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...SOUTH OF GREENVILLE.  HOWEVER...AFTER DAYBREAK
...HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY SHIFT INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS...AS BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD...AND SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES BENEATH
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT.

..KERR.. 09/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV...

36339312 36349009 31288895 31289182 

WWWW