[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Sep 22 20:49:31 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 222048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222048 
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-222145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2253
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN LOWER MI...SRN LM...NERN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 808...

VALID 222048Z - 222145Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS NRN PORTION WW -- MAINLY IN FORM
OF LARGE HAIL OVER SERN MI AND MIX OF WIND AND HAIL FROM SWRN LOWER
MI ACROSS LM.  POTENTIAL MAY SHIFT SWD WITH TIME ACROSS LOWER MI AS
CONVECTION TO THE W PREFERENTIALLY MOVES INTO MORE UNSTABLE ELEVATED
AIR MASS THAT HAS NOT BEEN CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED.  MODIFIED RUC
SOUNDINGS AND RAOB CHARTS INDICATE WEAKEST SBCINH OVER AREAS
ADJOINING LM ACROSS SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IL...WHERE 1500-2000 J/KG
MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED.  THEREFORE...CONVECTION MAY BACKBUILD FROM LM
ACROSS NRN IL. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS OVER IL WILL REMAIN STRONGER
CAP...ALONG WITH VEERED WARM SECTOR FLOW AND RESULTANT WEAKNESS OF
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.  OUTFLOW AIDED COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SRN
LM WWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS CHI METRO AREA TO JUST S RFD.  EXPECT
FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SWD 10-15 KT THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON
OVER THIS AREA...WHILE REMAINING QUASISTATIONARY OVER SWRN LOWER MI.

..EDWARDS.. 09/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...

41458904 42608901 43058275 41918272 

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