[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221808 
MIZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-222015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2252
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN LOWER MI...SRN LM...SRN WI...EXTREME
NRN IL...SWRN LH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221808Z - 222015Z

WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND
MOVING EWD 25-35 KT ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA.  SEVERE POTENTIAL --
WHICH HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL SO FAR...APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING WITH MORE DENSE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND HAIL EVENTS
BECOMING PROBABLE.  AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW ACROSS ERN LM...COLD
FRONT WWD TO BETWEEN MSN-MKE AND SWWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN IA. 
COMBINED WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED SEWD ACROSS
EXTREME SWRN LOWER MI TO VICINITY IND. TSTMS OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN
LOWER MI ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED BUT STILL CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...WITH 50 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...AND WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES FROM 300-800 J/KG ACROSS SRN LOWER
MI.  AIRMASS BECOMES CLOSER TO SFC-BASED AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
INCREASES WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS LM TOWARD WI/IL BORDER...THOUGH
ROUGHLY 50-100 J/KG CINH STILL NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME EVEN IN THAT
AREA BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS.  INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS IS MORE
UNSTABLE OVER LATTER AREA WITH MLCAPES POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS
2500-3000 J/KG ONCE TEMPS REACH MID 80S F.  SWLY WINDS IN BOUNDARY
LAYER RESULT IN NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOWS AND LIMITED
CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONT.  STILL...HEATING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
NEXT 2-3 HOURS FOR SFC-BASED TSTMS -- PARTICULARLY FROM SWRN LOWER
MI WWD.

..EDWARDS.. 09/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...

42158313 41918583 41988839 42338934 42968920 43448804
44128239 43868231 43498227 43008239 42938247 42828247
42718250 42638250 42548265 42438275 42378288 42338301
42288306 42178313 

WWWW