[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Sep 22 23:14:46 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 222313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222313 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-230045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2254
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0613 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL...SRN LWR MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 808...

VALID 222313Z - 230045Z

A WAVY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN SURFACE
ANALYSIS...EXTENDING FROM SERN LWR MI WWD TO ALONG THE OH/IND/MI
BORDER THEN WWD INTO GARY INDIANA AND NRN IL.  A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM A 1008 MB LOW NW OF DETROIT SWWD ACROSS CHICAGO THEN
INTO ECNTRL IA.  A SMALL WARM SECTOR REMAINS AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW
ACROSS NRN IND/NWRN OH INTO EXTREME SERN LWR MI.

MAIN BATCH OF TSTMS HAS CONGEALED INTO A LINEAR MCS AND WAS
BEGINNING TO MOVE EWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO.  RECENTLY...NEW DEVELOPMENT
HAS OCCURRED AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE OUTFLOW AND SWLY LLJ AXIS
VCNTY ANGOLA IND.  THESE STORMS MAY CLIP AREAS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
WW ACROSS EXTREME NWRN OH AND MAY PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.  

MEANWHILE...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS
SWRN LWR MI WWD TO THE CHICAGO AREA.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE EWD ATOP THE COLD DOME IN PLACE THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS. 
THE CAPE-BEARING LAYER REMAINS FAVORABLY SHEARED FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/CINH INCREASES. IN
ADDITION...MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AUGMENTING STORMS CURRENTLY IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE QUICKLY EWD INTO SWRN ONT WITH A DECREASE IN
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT.

..RACY.. 09/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...

41558882 42498888 42998284 41958288 41578314 41348562
41288887 

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