[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220213 
WIZ000-MNZ000-220345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2251
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0913 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL/SWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 806...807...

VALID 220213Z - 220345Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE
REGION...THOUGH OVERALL INTENSITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. 
ATTM...WW/S EXPECTED TO BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z.

EARLIER INTENSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY
SHIFT EWD INTO LESSER INSTABILITY/DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER WI. 
RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
SWRN MN...WHERE AREA REMAINS QUITE CAPPED.  HOWEVER WITH WSWLY LLJ
DEVELOPING ACROSS IA/SERN MN...ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO BACKBUILD WITH
ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO
CENTRAL MN.  THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED NORTH OF COMPOSITE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SHIFTING SEWD
INTO SWRN MN/SERN SD OVERNIGHT.  GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
OVERALL MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL...EXPECT WW/S WILL EXPIRE.

..EVANS.. 09/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...

43559422 44489536 45099550 45499259 45678952 44828912
43889197 

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